Post by account_disabled on Feb 20, 2024 4:36:05 GMT -5
The newspapers have been full of headlines about Rishi Sunak's U-turn on environmental policy. The British Prime Minister is not alone. The pressures to which he has bowed are weighing on leaders throughout the Western world. The underlying problem is that most mainstream politicians have adopted a convenient half-truth about climate change. This argues that the path to net zero is not only essential for the environment but will also be good for the economy. We are told that the jobs of the future will be green jobs. This is true, as far as it goes. But it ignores the transition costs. The abandonment of fossil fuels is very expensive. As that reality sets in, opposition is growing from people balking at the cost of giving up their old cars or replacing their gas boilers. Matt Goodwin, an academic and populist activist, argues that the push toward net zero will spark the “next great populist revolt in Western politics.
Goodwin points out, the British public supports net zero as an aspiration. But that support drops to 16 percent if the transition involves an increase in household bills. About 54 percent place a higher Job Function Email Database priority on cost of living than net zero. This shouldn't be a surprising discovery. The yellow vest protests that rocked France were initially sparked by an increase in duties on green fuels. A (possibly apocryphal) quote from a protester summed up the dilemma: “They talk about the end of the world. “We’re talking about the end of the week.” This year it is Germany's turn. The government's plans to ban the installation of new gas boilers in favor of heat pumps sparked a backlash from consumers, who risked being left with huge bills. That helped spark a surge in polls for the far-right Alternative for Germany, which denounces the “green fascism” of the German elite.
Now the government has reluctantly slowed the transition to heat pumps. As European governments hesitate to take the politically unpopular measures necessary to achieve net zero emissions, the EU's much-vaunted “Green New Deal” is coming under intense pressure. As the Financial Times reported this week, its key provisions are being watered down or delayed amid backlash from industry, farmers and businesses. The Biden administration risks being caught in a similar situation. The theory behind Bidenomics is that US government subsidies will help create many well-paying manufacturing jobs, in new green industries. Sounds like a win-win situation. But the current strike by auto workers is driven in large part by fears that the transition from gasoline to electric cars will mean significant layoffs and that new jobs won't pay as well as old ones. In the United States, the populist right is already in full cry against net zero.
Goodwin points out, the British public supports net zero as an aspiration. But that support drops to 16 percent if the transition involves an increase in household bills. About 54 percent place a higher Job Function Email Database priority on cost of living than net zero. This shouldn't be a surprising discovery. The yellow vest protests that rocked France were initially sparked by an increase in duties on green fuels. A (possibly apocryphal) quote from a protester summed up the dilemma: “They talk about the end of the world. “We’re talking about the end of the week.” This year it is Germany's turn. The government's plans to ban the installation of new gas boilers in favor of heat pumps sparked a backlash from consumers, who risked being left with huge bills. That helped spark a surge in polls for the far-right Alternative for Germany, which denounces the “green fascism” of the German elite.
Now the government has reluctantly slowed the transition to heat pumps. As European governments hesitate to take the politically unpopular measures necessary to achieve net zero emissions, the EU's much-vaunted “Green New Deal” is coming under intense pressure. As the Financial Times reported this week, its key provisions are being watered down or delayed amid backlash from industry, farmers and businesses. The Biden administration risks being caught in a similar situation. The theory behind Bidenomics is that US government subsidies will help create many well-paying manufacturing jobs, in new green industries. Sounds like a win-win situation. But the current strike by auto workers is driven in large part by fears that the transition from gasoline to electric cars will mean significant layoffs and that new jobs won't pay as well as old ones. In the United States, the populist right is already in full cry against net zero.